The economic inactivity rate in Northern Ireland is over 5% higher than in the UK as a whole – 26.6%, compared to 21.5%. The rates are highest – above 32% – in the Derry City/Strabane and Belfast council areas.
There are various causes of economic inactivity – the long health waiting lists and higher rates of disability (24% of the population here, 17% in England), for example. Insufficient affordable childcare and weaknesses in the social care system, leading to more adults being carers for others, are other important factors.
Economic inactivity is a drag on our economy, significantly reducing productivity and contributing to a skilled labour shortage, as reported by many employers. It leads to low household incomes and deprivation, while negatively affecting retail spending. There are serious social outcomes, which tend to trail down the generations.
There is a strong link between poor school performance and subsequent economic inactivity. In many cases, adult economic inactivity begins as a young person in not being in education, employment or training (NEET). NEET in the ages 16 to 24 sets a course that, for young men in particular, can be difficult to redirect.
Problems, of course, begin earlier than this. Too many teenagers switch off and drop out of schooling – this particularly affects working class boys. While it is recognised that Protestant boys from deprived backgrounds are the most affected group, it is also a serious problem for working class Catholic boys.
School pupils generally, whatever their religious background, tend to perform much less well if they come from deprived family backgrounds. This is exacerbated by grammar schools comprising disproportionately lower intakes of poorer children. While one in eight children attending grammar schools is on free school meals, the figure for non-selective schools is one in three.
Northern Ireland has a substantially greater problem than does our southern neighbour. While 92% of 15 to 19 year olds in the Republic enrol in education, in the North the figure is only 71%. Early school drop out rates are two to three times higher in Northern Ireland than in the South, setting in train long term challenges for our society and economy. This variance is one of the most important in holding back the North’s economy, producing low levels of productivity.
Education minister Paul Givan’s independent review of education, which reported in December 2023, explained how Northern Ireland is undermined by the disadvantages felt by some pupils. The cost of young adults not in education, employment or training in Northern Ireland is calculated at £134m a year.
Without access to good jobs, some will turn to crime. Almost half of prisoners are without qualifications: the cost of a prison place in Northern Ireland is nearly £45,000 per prisoner, per year. As the independent review pointed out, it would be better and cheaper to intervene earlier in children’s lives to prevent this human waste and economic cost in later years.
These factors are part of the context for the education reforms – TransformED – that have been announced by minister Givan. He is to be commended for taking advice from the independent review. His first step was to raise the statutory leaving age from education or training from 16 to 18, bringing Northern Ireland into line with England and the Republic. The minister has accepted advice from experts, including in addressing inequalities within our schools. It is to be hoped that the reforms will help more pupils to see the relevance of their studies to their future lives and careers.
The education department has stressed that the learning environment in schools should in future place greater stress not just on learning and skills, but also on critical thinking and problem solving. But it will also involve improving literacy and numeracy levels at primary school, to support learning at secondary level.
However, it would be wrong to think that responsibility for resolving these challenges lies solely with the education minister and his department. Supporting children from low income families to fully engage with the schooling system affects other departments as well. It is the communities department that has lead responsibility in addressing poverty, for example.
But the economy department also has a central role, as it contains the Careers Service. The quality of careers advice in Northern Ireland has been criticised in several reports over the years, including in 2020 by the public policy think-tank Pivotal. Careers advice is not conducted only by the Careers Service, as schools also provide guidance to pupils.
There is a view expressed within parts of the further education sector that careers advice can itself cause problems within our labour market. One further education leader has repeatedly suggested to me that it is very difficult to recruit students to vocational courses because grammar schools – and some non-grammars – encourage pupils to go on to university, at the expense of other options that may better suit a pupil.
The implication is that schools are focused on promoting themselves to future generations of pupils and parents by boasting of how many school leavers go on to the best universities.
It is consistent with many policy challenges in Northern Ireland that the most serious problems cannot be addressed by one department or agency on its own. Instead, it requires politicians, officials and those delivering on the ground to all work together with a shared objective. And that, consistently, is where in Northern Ireland it falls apart.